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China at risk of a winter spike in infections
Published on: 2020-09-21
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WINTERN 02China could face a new wave of coronavirus infections as winter approaches, according to the country’s experts.

Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said the country had already experienced four waves of infections and a fifth was possible.

The initial outbreak in Wuhan was the first wave, which was brought under control in early March, Wu said. The second was a regional outbreak created by imported cases in cities in northeastern China in April and May.

The third wave started at a wholesale food market in Beijing in June and the fourth was the sporadic cases in July in the northeastern city of Dalian and Urumqi, the capital of China’s far western region of Xinjiang, he said.

“Except for the initial outbreak in Wuhan, the outbreaks were sporadic, regional cases and they were effectively controlled,” he said.

WINTERN 01Beijing was now under pressure to control both regional outbreaks and imported cases, Wu said.

The isolation of asymptomatic cases and contact tracing were important and effective measures to contain the spread of the virus, he said, adding that nucleic acid tests would be more widely used to detect cases at an early stage.

Other epidemiologists have also stressed the need for strong prevention and control measures this winter.

Zhong Nanshan, a respiratory disease expert and director of the State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, said at a forum on Friday that the Covid-19 pandemic was likely to continue to spread in winter and spring.

China would continue to carry out nucleic acid tests, trace close contacts and isolate asymptomatic patients if another domestic outbreak emerged, he said.

Since the health crisis began at the end of last year, more than 30 million coronavirus infections have been reported around the world and almost 950,000 people have lost their lives to Covid-19.

WINTER 03Case numbers have surged in several European countries recently, raising concerns about a possible spike this winter.

Hans Kluge, the World Health Organisation’s regional director for Europe, said on Thursday that in more than half of the 27 member nations of the European Union case numbers had doubled over the past two weeks.

A total of 300,000 new infections were reported across Europe last week, which was more than the previous high seen in March, he said.

Meanwhile, China’s CDC said this week that some Chinese cities would be offering flu shots a month earlier than normal to help reduce the risk of dual infections.

警惕秋冬疫情

吴尊友:全球疫情形势非常严峻,自年初新冠疫情发生以后,全球疫情一直持续上升,目前病例数已接近3000万,死亡数逼近100万。全球新冠疫情经历了几个发展阶段,今年3月下旬,全球报告数每日报告数突破5万,5月下旬突破10万,到了7月初已突破20万,9月已有两个单日报告数突破30万。从现有的数据看,全球疫情暂时不会缓解,形势非常严峻,单日报告数或会再创新高。

我国新冠疫情也经历了4波疫情。第一波是武汉为源头的疫情,到3月上旬得到控制;第二波是输入病例引发的地方的局部传播,分别是4月、5月在绥芬河、舒兰等地;第三波是6月北京新发地发生聚集性疫情;第四波是7月在大连、乌鲁木齐等地发生的聚集性疫情。除第一波疫情以外,后面的几起暴发疫情,都是局部的、聚集性的、小范围的。由于发现及时,控制有力,把疫情限制在了最小范围。

国人关心的是,中国会不会来第五波?我估计,第五波疫情可能会来。目前,我国疫情受到两个方面的压力,一是类似与北京、大连、乌鲁木齐,突然出现暴发疫情,二是输入病例引发疫情传播扩散。但可以肯定的是,我国不会再现类似武汉的严重的新冠疫情。

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