Home  Contact Us
  Follow Us On:
 
Search:
Advertising Advertising Free Newsletter Free E-Newsletter
NEWS

The World will Experience Worst Recession Since the 1930s
Published on: 2020-04-16
Share to
User Rating: / 0
PoorBest 

The value of Asian stocks have decreased dramatically as a consequence of the coronavrius virus outbreakThe global economy will this year likely suffer the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday, as governments worldwide grapple with the Covid-19 pandemic.

Gita Gopinath chief economist and director of the Research Department at the International Monetary FundGita Gopinath, chief economist and director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund

4IMF now expects the global economy to contract by 3% in 2020. By contrast, in January it had forecast a global GDP (gross domestic product) expansion of 3.3% for this year.

12"It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, said in the latest World Economic Outlook report.

3In January, the IMF had estimated 3.4% growth for global GDP in 2021; this has now been revised up to 5.8% (although growth is expected to be coming from a lower base following 2020′s projected contraction).

IMF预计今年全球经济将萎缩3% 或为1930年以来最严峻衰退

国际货币基金组织(IMF)4月14日发布了新一期《世界经济展望报告》(下称“报告”),预计2020年全球GDP增速为-3%,为上世纪30年代大萧条以来最糟经济衰退,严重程度显著高于2008-2009年的全球金融危机。

不过,该报告也表示,假设疫情在2020年下半年消退,防控措施可以逐步取消,随着政策支持措施帮助经济活动恢复正常,全球经济预计在2021年将增长5.8%。
大萧条以来最糟经济衰退

“由于疫情,2020年全球经济预计将急剧收缩3%。”IMF在报告中表示。而在今年1月,该组织曾预测2020年全球经济将增长3.3%,仅三个月,IMF的预测就发生反转。

报告指出,疫情正在世界范围内给人们造成高昂且不断增加的成本。为了保护生命,使医疗体系能够应对这一疫情,需要实施隔离、封锁和广泛的关闭,以减缓病毒传播。因此,卫生危机正对经济活动产生严重的影响。

IMF首席经济学家吉塔•戈皮纳特表示,这使“大封锁”成为上世纪30年代“大萧条”以来最严重的经济衰退,比2008-2009年全球金融危机时的情况糟糕得多。

“数月之内IMF经济预期发生如此变化,究其根源在于新冠肺炎疫情的发生以及其对于全球经济基本面的冲击。”中信证券固定收益首席明明在接受中新经纬客户端采访时表示。

明明分析道,当前新冠肺炎疫情在全球持续发酵,我国国内经过两个多月的疫情防控,总体疫情较为稳定,但海外疫情方面,尤以欧美为主的众多国家已经成为海外疫情的重灾区,而随着各国数据陆续公布,疫情对于全球基本面的冲击正在显现。

他认为,经济危机的发生一般按照“情绪危机-金融危机-经济危机”的链条进行传导,未来在经济基本面冲击之下,当前的形势仍有可能由流动性危机的第二阶段发展成为经济危机的第三阶段,危机的警报尚未解除。因此从全球经济面临的压力角度,IMF下调了全球经济增长的预期。

Comments (0)Add Comment

Write comment

security code
Write the displayed characters


busy
    Subscription    |     Advertising    |     Contact Us    |
Address: Magnetic Plaza, Building A4, 6th Floor, Binshui Xi Dao.
Nankai District. 300381 TIANJIN. PR CHINA
Tel: +86 22 23917700
E-mail: webmaster@businesstianjin.com
Copyright 2020 BusinessTianjin.com. All rights reserved.